As the Dalai Lama nears 90, the question looms like a storm cloud over the arid Tibetan plateau: who will succeed him, and how might China be involved?
At a Glance
- The 14th Dalai Lama will turn 90 on July 6, 2025, intensifying focus on the issue of his succession.
- The Chinese Communist Party, which is officially atheist, claims the sole right to approve the next Dalai Lama.
- The Dalai Lama has stated his reincarnation will likely be found outside of China and has said the institution could end with him.
- The U.S. has made it official policy that only the Tibetan Buddhist community can decide on the succession, threatening sanctions against Chinese interference.
A Spiritual Question, A Geopolitical Battle
As the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, approaches his 90th birthday, a centuries-old spiritual tradition has become a flashpoint for a modern geopolitical struggle. The question of who will identify his reincarnation, or successor, has pitted the traditions of Tibetan Buddhism against the authoritarian ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party.
For centuries, the search for a new Dalai Lama has been a sacred process guided by high lamas who interpret visions and spiritual signs to find a child who is the reincarnation of the previous leader. Now, the Chinese government is seeking to seize control of this deeply religious process.
China’s Claim to Control Reincarnation
The Chinese government, which has occupied Tibet since 1951, insists that it has the sole right to name the next Dalai Lama. Beijing bases its claim on a historical ritual involving a “Golden Urn,” used by Qing dynasty emperors, and has codified its authority in a 2007 law known as “Order No. 5,” which requires all reincarnations of Tibetan lamas to have government approval.
This is not a theoretical threat. In 1995, after the Dalai Lama identified a six-year-old boy as the reincarnated Panchen Lama—the second-most important figure in Tibetan Buddhism—Chinese authorities abducted the child, who has not been seen since. Beijing then installed its own state-sanctioned Panchen Lama. As former Tibetan government-in-exile leader Lobsang Sangay famously said, China’s claim is “like Fidel Castro saying, ‘I will select the next Pope, and all the Catholics should follow.'”
The Dalai Lama’s Counter-Moves
The current Dalai Lama has made several strategic statements designed to undermine the legitimacy of any successor chosen by Beijing. As detailed in the New York Times, he has repeatedly said his reincarnation will likely be found in India, where he has lived in exile since 1959.
He has also floated the possibility that the institution of the Dalai Lama, which has existed for centuries, could simply end with him if the Tibetan people no longer feel it is relevant. He has directly addressed the likely outcome of China’s interference: “Then there will be two Dalai Lamas: one, the Dalai Lama of the Tibetan heart, and one that is officially appointed.”
The International Stakes
The succession dispute has significant international implications. The United States has passed the Tibetan Policy and Support Act, which makes it official U.S. policy that the succession is a strictly religious matter to be decided by Tibetan Buddhists alone. The act calls for sanctions against any Chinese officials who attempt to interfere in the process.
With the Dalai Lama likely to name a successor from within the large Tibetan exile community in India, the relationship between the two nuclear-armed Asian giants, China and India, will be further tested. The looming crisis is more than a religious dispute; it is a battle for the heart of Tibetan identity and a major geopolitical test of wills.
