Republicans have a chance to reclaim the Senate by flipping three seats currently held by Democrats. There are 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2024 and three of these are in red states: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.
It seems automatic that Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) Senate seat will be held by West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R). Manchin is retiring and leaves the seat without an incumbent. Republicans are also pushing to gain at least one seat between Montana and Ohio. Winning both would lead to a 52-48 Republican majority.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is seeking his fourth term but will have competition from Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Sheehy is a business owner, U.S. Naval Academy graduate, and decorated Navy SEAL. Ohio’s Sen. Sharrod Brown (D-OH) is waiting for his opponent to emerge from Ohio’s Republican primary.
Generally a deep blue state, Maryland’s Senate race will be competitive in 2024. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) won’t seek re-election and just hours before the deadline to file, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) announced that he was running for the Senate. Hogan was popular as a two-term governor and this Senate race will be closely watched.
The Republicans are in a favorable position to win the Senate majority but do not have an easy road. Two of their most well-known Senators, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) are in red states but have been targeted by the Democrats.
Texas hasn’t had a Democrat in the Senate since 1993 and hasn’t voted for a Democrat president since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Florida voted for Donald Trump in the last two presidential elections and re-elected Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) by wide margins over their Democrat challengers.
Democrat strategists believe that the reversal of Roe v Wade will put reproductive rights on the ballot in the November elections. This issue has tripped up Republicans in red states when pro-life ballot measures were defeated in Ohio and Kansas. Republicans claim the defeats were because the bills were not written well and were not adequately explained to the voters.
Should the Republicans flip these Senate seats without losing any of their own, they would hold a 53-47 advantage, which matches the Republican Senate majority in 2021.
