With Election Day just weeks away, more than 15 million Americans have already cast their votes, and Republicans are seeing favorable trends in early voting. Data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab reveals that 5 million voters have voted in person, and another 10 million have submitted mail-in ballots. Of the 56 million mail-in ballot requests, approximately 46 million remain unreturned, setting the stage for a substantial surge in the final days before the election.
One key trend emerging from early voting is that Republicans are making gains in states like Arizona and Nevada, particularly among low-propensity voters. These are voters who have not consistently participated in elections in the past but could play a decisive role in 2024. In Arizona, Republicans are outpacing both Democrats and Independents in ballots returned by these less active voters, which may give President Donald J. Trump an edge in this swing state.
In Nevada, the early voting data shows a similar pattern. While Democrats hold a lead in mail-in ballots, Republicans are gaining momentum by mobilizing voters who haven’t traditionally participated. This could help close the gap and make Nevada a key battleground for the GOP.
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, turnout among Democrats has been lower than expected. Absentee ballot requests from Democrats are down by about 1.2 million compared to 2020, while Republicans are only down by around 250,000. This lower Democratic turnout could be a sign that Republicans have an opportunity to win in the state.
As early voting continues, Republicans appear to be making strategic gains, particularly in key battleground states that will be essential to securing a victory in November.
