Kamala Harris is struggling to match the polling strength that Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton displayed at the same point in their respective campaigns against President Donald Trump. According to the Real Clear Polling (RCP) average on August 31, 2024, Harris leads Trump by a mere 1.8 points nationally. This slim margin is significantly lower than the leads Biden and Clinton had at this stage in the 2020 and 2016 elections.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton held a 4.6-point lead over Trump, while Joe Biden enjoyed a 6.3-point advantage in 2020. Both Clinton and Biden were in stronger positions than Harris currently finds herself, raising concerns among Democrats about her ability to maintain or expand her lead as the election draws nearer.
The current Electoral College map reflects the tightness of the race, with Harris only two electoral votes ahead of Trump, according to RCP’s projections. This narrow margin is particularly concerning given Trump’s history of outperforming his polls, as he did in 2016 when he clinched the presidency despite trailing in most polls leading up to the election.
The media has largely gone soft on Harris compared to the scrutiny Trump has faced, yet this has not translated into a significant polling advantage for her. The Democratic National Convention, which could have provided a boost, appears to have had little effect on her standing in the race.
Harris has also faced criticism for her limited public engagements as the Democratic nominee. Her recent sit-down interview with CNN’s Dana Bash highlighted her attempts to reassure voters, but her previous policy shifts on issues like the border and fracking continue to draw attention. Additionally, her ranking as the most left-leaning Senator in 2019 by GovTrack has raised concerns among moderate voters.
With the general election looming, Harris must find a way to widen her lead and address the challenges that have left her trailing behind Biden and Clinton’s historical polling figures.
